Methodology. Household equity allocation is the Federal Reserve Z.1 (Financial Accounts) share of directly and indirectly held corporate equities in household & nonprofit financial assets (FRED BOGZ1FL153064486Q, quarterly, 1951–present). The 10-year forward return is the annualized S&P 500 price return (dividends excluded) over the 10 years following each observation date, built from Shiller's monthly price history and SPY close prices thereafter. Both series are plotted at T+10 years — the maturity date of each 10-year forward return window. This means the household equity allocation observed in 2016-Q3 appears on the chart at ~2026, aligned with the return that was earned over 2016–2026. The allocation line therefore extends ~10 years past the return line, showing today's allocation (~46%) projected forward into the unobserved future. The left axis is inverted (high allocation at bottom, low at top) so the negatively correlated series visually track each other — high allocation aligns with low forward returns. The return line stops where 10-year forward data is no longer available (~2016 observation date = ~2026 plotted date). Standard-deviation bands show the historical range of equity allocation. The implied forward return from the regression is a benchmark, not a forecast.