What this shows: the TradingView formula
SP:SPX ÷ FRED:UNRATE ÷ FRED:UNRATE × ECONOMICS:USIRYY × ECONOMICS:USINTR ÷ usm2,
evaluated month by month as typed (left-to-right, × and ÷ have equal
precedence): S&P 500 level × inflation YoY (%) × Fed funds rate (%)
÷ unemployment rate (%)² ÷ US M2 money supply ($bn). The result is a
dimensionless index — there is no natural unit, so levels are arbitrary and
only the shape and relative changes matter. Higher values mean stocks are
expensive relative to the macro mix (or unemployment/M2 are low); lower
values mean the macro burden is high.
Leg mapping (TradingView → free equivalent):
SP:SPX → S&P 500 monthly close (Robert Shiller's long-run dataset,
1871+, maintained mirror)
FRED:UNRATE → FRED
UNRATE
(civilian unemployment rate, %)
ECONOMICS:USIRYY → FRED
CPIAUCSL
year-over-year % change (US inflation rate, all urban consumers)
ECONOMICS:USINTR → FRED
FEDFUNDS
(effective federal funds rate, %)
usm2 → FRED
M2SL
(US M2 money supply, seasonally adjusted, $ billions)
Reading the chart: the line is the raw formula output for each month.
It spikes in tight-labour-market, high-rate, high-inflation, low-liquidity
regimes and collapses when unemployment or money supply grow. Because it is
a ratio of a price level to macro aggregates, it drifts over time — zoom in
(scroll / shift+drag) to compare episodes on the same scale. Data may be
revised.
Data:
chart data (JSON) ·
source series (CSV) ·
FRED UNRATE ·
FRED CPIAUCSL ·
FRED FEDFUNDS ·
FRED M2SL