What this shows: the proportion of S&P 500 companies that reported earnings per share above consensus estimates in each quarterly reporting season, in percent. A reading of 74 means 74% of the companies that reported beat the analyst estimate.

Data: the series covers Q1 2006 – Q2 2026. Values for Q1 2006 – Q1 2026 are the Deutsche Bank Research series as published on The Daily Shot (August 2026; the published series starts in Q1 2006, confirmed against a July 2020 edition of the same chart), digitized from the published chart image: the quarterly line was traced pixel-by-pixel and re-scaled using the chart's own axis calibration (63–88% scale, cross-checked against the drawn 74% average line). Values are approximate to about ±1 percentage point. The most recent point, Q2 2026, is the real beat rate reported by FactSet in their weekly Earnings Insight (86% of S&P 500 companies that had reported by Jul 31, 2026, beat EPS estimates; report date shown on the chart). The underlying Bloomberg/I/B/E/S history is not freely available in machine-readable form, which is why the older quarters are digitized.

Average line: the dashed green line is the mean of the series over 2006–2019, 74% — the pre-pandemic reference level used in the source chart. Readings above it mean the earnings season is broad by historical standards; readings below it mean beats are scarce.

Recession bands: NBER US business-cycle peak-to-trough dates (Dec 2007–Jun 2009 and Feb–Apr 2020). Beat rates collapsed into the 2008–09 crisis (a low of 63.8% in Q4 2008) and dipped again to ~68% in Q1 2020, then rebounded to a record ~86% in 2021 as the recovery beat depressed estimates.

Reading the chart: each point is one quarterly reporting season. Zoom in (scroll / shift+drag) to compare individual seasons; the 5/10-year windows remove the 2008–09 episode from the scale so recent variation is easier to see.

Data: chart data (JSON) · source series (CSV) · the Daily Shot chart · FactSet Earnings Insight