What this shows: the TradingView formula
SP:SPX ÷ FRED:UNRATE ÷ FRED:UNRATE ÷ OANDA:XAUUSD,
evaluated month by month as typed (left-to-right, × and ÷ have equal
precedence): S&P 500 level ÷ unemployment rate (%)² ÷ gold price
($/oz). The result is a dimensionless index — there is no natural unit, so
levels are arbitrary and only the shape and relative changes matter.
Higher values mean stocks are expensive relative to the labour market and
gold; lower values mean unemployment is high or gold is dear relative to
stocks.
Leg mapping (TradingView → free equivalent):
SP:SPX → S&P 500 monthly close (Robert Shiller's long-run dataset,
1871+, maintained mirror)
FRED:UNRATE → FRED
UNRATE
(civilian unemployment rate, %; the formula squares it)
OANDA:XAUUSD → World Bank
pink sheet GOLD
(monthly average of the London gold fix, USD per troy ounce, May 1960
onward) — the free monthly proxy for spot gold; FRED discontinued its
LBMA gold-fix series.
Reading the chart: the line is the raw formula output for each month.
It spikes when stocks rise into a tight labour market with cheap gold, and
collapses when unemployment climbs (the squared term bites hard) or gold
outperforms stocks. The 1970s gold bull, the 2000 peak, the 2008–11
unemployment spike and the 2020s gold rally are all visible as deep
troughs. Because it is a ratio of a price level to macro aggregates, it
drifts over time — zoom in (scroll / shift+drag) to compare episodes on
the same scale. Data may be revised.
Data:
chart data (JSON) ·
source series (CSV) ·
FRED UNRATE